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awarded  Nice Question
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comment How can the success of Bayesian models be reconciled with demonstrations of heuristic and biased reasoning?
Thanks for the answer Artem! I tend to think of heuristics as error-prone shortcuts and Bayesian models as analyses of what people should do. Thus, I am somewhat puzzled by your suggestion that heuristics = representation in a Bayesian model. (If a heuristic is error-prone, then it is not an example of what someone should do.) I suspect that have different things in mind when we refer to "Bayesian" models. Is it possible for you to develop your point a bit more to address my confusion?
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asked How can the success of Bayesian models be reconciled with demonstrations of heuristic and biased reasoning?
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awarded  Scholar
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accepted Does having a sense of purpose increase longevity?
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comment Does having a sense of purpose increase longevity?
Thanks for suggestions all. I agree that original question was not clearly on topic.
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comment Savant syndrome and Cognitive bias
My explanation for the findings that you linked to would be analogous to my anfswer above. Your other question is interesting, but seems like it might be better addressed separately from your first question.
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comment Does having a sense of purpose increase longevity?
Not really. I am just assuming that the link between psychological and health outcomes is on topic. I realize that others may reasonably disagree.
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comment Does having a sense of purpose increase longevity?
I edited the question to highlight a possible psychological explanation of the finding. Health psychologists might be interested in this sort of finding and in its interpretation.
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revised Does having a sense of purpose increase longevity?
framing question with speculative psychological interpretation of retirement finding
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asked Does having a sense of purpose increase longevity?
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comment Savant syndrome and Cognitive bias
Do you have any specific examples of the availability heuristic in mind? I am not familiar with all of them; others may depend more on memory. The ones that I can think of do not, however. For example, consider estimating the number of words that begin with the letter k vs. have a k in the third letter (from the linked paper). Letters beginning with k are more available (despite being less common) because we tend to index words by their initial sounds. I would suspect that people with superior memories would do the same.
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comment Savant syndrome and Cognitive bias
Thanks for the clarification and the interesting question. I tend to think of base rate neglect as a finding and the availability heuristic as an explanation, so it is possible for the example to be a case of both. (That said, I would consider the murder-suicide example to be a case of using unreliable information to estimate the base rate rather than a case of base rate neglect.)
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revised Savant syndrome and Cognitive bias
deleted 140 characters in body
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answered Savant syndrome and Cognitive bias
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