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seen Sep 30 '13 at 16:37

Jun
15
awarded  Scholar
Jun
15
accepted Is there an effect of visual expertise on eye movements when examining an image?
Apr
9
revised Predicting the Duration of Future Events
update
Apr
9
revised Predicting the Duration of Future Events
update
Apr
8
comment Predicting the Duration of Future Events
what I'm hoping to give a better, cleaner, simpler example of one case (which does not cover the scope of my question). Imagine a person playing a special game of Whack-A-Mole. The moles in this game do NOT come out of their holes at regular intervals (distribution over time-spacings is not uniform) but there are some statistical (not temporal-order dependent) regularities. Imagine that we are researchers measuring when the person's muscles begin to tighten in anticipation. An interesting question might be: does this person's average performance improve with experience? How? <- Decompose.
Apr
8
comment Predicting the Duration of Future Events
[continued] as I would assume that much if not most of it would be unconscious. To further clarify my question: your example of "logic/probabilistic reasoning" involved some process of ""thumbnailing" the mean of remembered lengths.... correcting this". One question is: "if this is true, how does it work?". However, I remember once reading about a model that suggested people store in memory a finite set of previous experiences of durations of a type of event, and each time they need to make an estimate, one of these durations is randomly sampled (not averaged) from this finite set.
Apr
8
comment Predicting the Duration of Future Events
what, you wrote: "...If you really want to do your best (because you need to catch that train) there is probably some kind of conscious logic/probabilistic reasoning going on, like "thumbnailing" the mean of remembered lengths, correcting this for what you can see (how many people are on the street today, so is the line going to be long) etc." <- Thanks for your comments relating to a two-process perspective. I would like to focus on the question of "What kind of probabilistic reasoning." I'm not sure why you specify that this reasoning would necessarily be "conscious" [continued]
Apr
8
awarded  Editor
Apr
8
revised Predicting the Duration of Future Events
clarification
Apr
8
comment Predicting the Duration of Future Events
Examples at smaller temporal scales: 1) You are at a crosswalk. A car is coming your way at a certain speed S1. The "Do Not Walk" sign has been flashing for a certain amount of time T1. You must decide: "is it too late to run across the street, or can I still make it?". 2) Each morning, you get a coffee from a coffee shop. Getting your coffee never takes the same amount of time. In fact, you live in a tourist-y city, and there is a great deal of variance in waiting time because the length of the line varies. Before you enter the coffee shop, make your best guess about how long it will take.
Apr
8
comment Predicting the Duration of Future Events
Hi what, I didn't intend to limit the question's scope to the example of putting entries into a calendar. Addressing your question, though: it's possible that I am a bit peculiar in the way I use calendars... I tend to schedule every little event and continually modify my estimates of duration. You've presented one case (a scheduled class) in which there is essentially no uncertainty about duration. Your second case might not be the best example either for multiple reasons (e.g. you have control over the duration, and you've suggested an upper bound on duration rather than a prediction).
Apr
8
asked Predicting the Duration of Future Events
Aug
1
awarded  Student
Aug
1
asked Is there an effect of visual expertise on eye movements when examining an image?