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There are different perspectives that you could take on your question. An objective perspective could seek to quantify the true probability that a person is correct in their belief. This would be compared with the person's subjective belief that they are correct. Over confidence could then be defined as the situation when the subjective probability is ...

Usually, confidence is based on experience; proven results with regards to a task or ability increase one's belief that the task can be completed a second time. Notice that this has nothing to do with what others believe you can do - it's about what you believe you can do. Overconfidence is bravado - false posturing to fool or mislead others; most often ...