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There are at least two different lines of research that are relevant here. Forecasting errors One large line of research has shown that are pretty bad in forecasting future events. This can be seen, for example, in the stable tendency to overestimate the affective impact of negative as well as positive events in terms of intensity and duration. In other ...


Karl Ericsson, on whose work Malcolm Gladwell based much of his popular Outliers, has expressed on a number of occasions that the optimal amount of practice time a day is around 3-5 hours, depending on domain. There is a great deal of research in the expertise literature, but Ericsson, Krampe, Tesch-Römer (1993) is a seminal (if not uncontroversial) paper ...

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