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Optimism bias refers to a general human tendency to underestimate the likelihood of negative events, and conversely, to overestimate the likelihood of positive events, when making predictions about which events will occur to oneself in the future. It is a cognitively interesting and widely studied phenomenon, because the human brain and human behavior are ...


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His very first use of heuristic beyond computer science (he won the Turing award in Comp. Science) is from 1946. The Proverbs of Administration Herbert A. Simon, Public Administration Review, Vol. 6, No. 1 (Winter, 1946), pp. 53-67 If so, the evidence that it is an error has never been marshalled or published-apart from loose heuristic arguments ...


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It seems that despite the idea's intuitive appeal, the evidence is currently mixed with respect to whether loss aversion can explain dollar cost averaging strategies. Most research I can find seems to be financial and normative, pertaining to whether the strategy performs well more than behavioral and descriptive concerns for why people engage in the ...



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