Hot answers tagged decision-making
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The probability of conjunctive events (all six tosses are heads) are overestimated, relative to a single event of similar overall probability.
This result has been shown by Paul Slovic, in an experiment that is described in its abstract as follows:
This study examined the effects on the attractiveness of a gamble, of manipulating the number and ...
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I believe these questions are dealt with by "support theory," the seminal publications being:
Tversky, A., & Koehler, D. J. (1994). Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability. Psychological Review, 101(4), 547-566.
Rottenstreich, Y., & Tversky, A. (1997). Unpacking, repacking, and anchoring: advances in support ...
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