I am interested in prediction markets, where traders have a monetary incentive to bet on who they think would win in an election. I think that the financial incentive in prediction markets makes them a better predictor of future election outcomes than polls.
I think that when people are asked how they would vote on the presidency if tomorrow were the election day, they tend to give you an answer which they would like to see happen rather than how they would actually vote. This discrepancy reduces the predictive value of polls. Alternatively, I think that if the incentives are set correctly the same people tell you more of the truth instead of their wishful thinking. I would call this phenomena "polls bias".
- What is a scientific term for this problem?
- Where can I read further about the phenomena?